Business Valuation Methods: How to Value a Business in Australia
What is your business worth? Revenue won’t tell you. Neither will the money and years you’ve put into building it. A buyer will look at sustainable profit. An investor in a start-up will look at likely future cash flow. In an asset-heavy business, property and equipment may carry more weight. Each is a different lens, which is why different business valuation methods can produce different answers. This guide explains some of the main around concepts business valuation methods used, when each one fits, and what matters beyond the calculation. Obviously, it doesn’t cover everything, instead aiming to give a ‘broad brushstrokes’ understanding of the topic at hand. What Is a Business Valuation? A business valuation assesses what a business, or an ownership interest in it, is worth at a specific date. It should consider financial performance, future prospects, assets, risks, and market evidence. It is not the same as the value of the company or shares in that company. Purpose shapes the answer. A business valuation for a sale asks a different question from one prepared for a shareholder buyout. So before picking a method, be clear on what is being valued, why, and as at what date. A business valuation is an informed estimate, not a guaranteed sale price. The evidence and reasoning behind the number matter as much as the number itself. The Three Main Business Valuation Approaches Business valuation methods sit within three broad approaches. Income Approach Market Approach Asset (Cost) Approach This looks at the earnings or cash flow the business is expected to generate. It covers capitalisation of future maintainable earnings and discounted cash flow. This compares the business with others that have sold. It is only as good as the transactions you can find, and how well you understand what each sale included. This looks at the value of the assets once liabilities are taken into account. It matters most when assets make up much of the business’s value. Each approach views the business from a different angle, and a valuer will often consider more than one before reaching a conclusion. What Information Do You Need for a Business Valuation? A good business valuation starts with understanding the business, not choosing a formula. Information commonly reviewed includes: Financial records What do historical revenue, profit and cash flow show? Unusual transactions Are one-off costs or gains distorting reported earnings? Assets and liabilities What does the business own and owe? Customers and contracts How secure is future income? People and operations How much does the business rely on the owner or key staff? Forecasts Are future expectations backed by evidence? Gaps in the information make the conclusion harder to support. For Australian tax-related market valuations, the ATO expects the assessment to be objective and backed by appropriate evidence. Capitalisation of Future Maintainable Earnings This business valuation method is an income approach method and estimates enterprise value from the earnings a business can reasonably keep generating. In our experience, it is the method most often applied to small businesses. What are future maintainable earnings? They are not necessarily the profit in the latest profit and loss statement. A valuer tests whether that figure reflects normal, ongoing performance. A genuine one-off expense may have pulled profit down; an unusual gain may have pushed it up. Every adjustment needs a sound reason, with the goal being a realistic estimate of ongoing earnings, not the highest one. How it works. In simple terms: Indicative value = Future maintainable earnings / Capitalisation Rate. The capitalisation rate is essentially the relative risk associated with the business as an investment when compared to all other investment types. It is expressed as a percentage, where the percentage is the expected rate of return that the business ought to be capable of into the future. For example, a 25% capitalisation rate indicates that the business ought to be capable of returning a 25% return on investment into the future. Which is simply another way of saying that the business is worth 4x its estimated future income. So a capitalisation rate is basically an inverse multiple… The multiple reflects risk, growth prospects and the strength of the earnings. It should rest on relevant evidence, not a generic industry rule of thumb. Example. Hypothetically, if maintainable EBIT is $300,000 and an appropriate risk based capitalisation rate is 25%, the indicative value is $300,000 / 0.25 = $1,200,000. That figure still needs to be read considering which underlying business assets are included in this value. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method The discounted cash flow (DCF) method is another Income Approach method which estimates future cash flows and converts them to a value in today’s dollars. It earns its place when future performance is expected to look quite different from the past, or where the majority of income is very predictable. How DCF works. A DCF model typically includes: Forecast cash flows over a set period A discount rate reflecting timing and risk A terminal value for cash flows beyond that period The forecast must allow for the costs and investment needed to produce the cash, not just projected sales. When DCF is useful. It helps when a business is in start-up phase, entering a new growth phase, or making a major investment that makes historical earnings a poor guide to the future. Limitations. Small changes to growth forecasts, the discount rate or the terminal value can move the result a long way. The calculation is only as good as the assumptions that underpin the forecasts and discounts adopted. Comparable Sales (Market Approach) Comparable sales analysis looks at prices paid for other businesses and asks what those deals say about the business being valued. It is generally considered a Market Approach method and is functionally very similar to a Capitalisation of Future Maintainable Earnings. Future maintainable earnings tell you which earnings are sustainable; the multiple turns those earnings into an indicative value and are based upon comparable sales information for similar businesses in the industry. EBIT




